Countries are different to get out of a recession , experts say : the trajectory goes to three letters - L, U, V. Not be ruled out and a new crisis, if burst asset market bubbles
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Exit out of a recession will follow the trajectory of LUV, analysts have concluded a marketing group WPP. Prolonged L-recession awaits Western Europe, the U.S. will along the path of slow recovery U, and developing countries BRIC (Brazil, Russia, China, India) is waiting for a quick V-out of the crisis. Rebuilding will not be synchronized, in contrast to the acute phase of crisis, when the trajectory match, and believe in Goldman Sachs: the emerging economies in 2010 show growth of 7, 3% developed - only 1, 9%, their role reduced. The decline in production in the United States will continue in the coming years, they write, bank analysts, recovery to be sluggish as consumers have lost the old mechanism of debt financing. There is a risk that they will cut spending as crisis collapse measures announced mintorgovli U.S. on Friday. American consumers are no longer can no longer be the motor of world economic growth, says the investor George Soros (quoted by Bloomberg). European companies are also unlikely to expand operations and to increase spending and a weak labor market will restrain potrebrashody, believe in Goldman Sachs. Exaggerate the success of China's economy and the block emerging markets do not, warns Director of Analytical Department Savings Nicholas Kashcheev. The crisis began in the U.S., went through six months to Europe and another six months - to China, recalled Kascheev if the situation in the U.S. and Europe get worse, China is not able to keep pace. But the entrance to the new recession, which still threatens the world economy will again be at the same time. "While the recovery is very slow, the prices of risky assets have grown too hard and fast in comparison with the macro-economic factors, "- writes in FT professor Nouriel Roubini. Inflation of the global asset bubble caused a wave of liquidity and near-zero interest rates and a weakening monetary policy (the base rate in the U.S. - 0-0, 25%), but the bubble soon or later will burst, I'm sure Roubini, and it will be the largest synchronized explosion in history. Global economic recovery could peter out, Soros agrees, and in 2010-2011. possible new round of recession. "The longer takes a turn, the more believe in it, but the prevailing mood is far moved away from reality. "
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