NBU reserves reached $ 34, 6 billion - it increases the likelihood that the National Bank will continue to keep the hryvnia exchange rate swings on
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The past week (from 4 to 8 October), and especially its second half for the currency market was relatively calm, despite the fact that the results of five working days of exchange rate depreciated by 0, 04% - to Level 7, 94 UAH. / $. Calm the market is determined primarily by the lack of sharp exchange rate fluctuations, as well as the lack of need for intervention National Bank of Ukraine. So, last week National Bank entered the market only once - on Tuesday. On this day, the National Bank put up for sale quotes dollar at the rate of 7 9475grn. / $, such action could develop the controller trend in the market towards the strengthening of the hryvnia. As a result, the tendency to strengthen national currency remained until the end of the week. Moreover, the absence of increased demand on Friday (October 8) all the more remarkable given that on Monday trading the dollar is not implemented (11 October in the U.S. celebrated Columbus Day). The idea is that buyers would have to try to buy the currency on Friday to make payments over the next two days. "Naftogaz" scare Bankers We believe that the next purchase of currency, "Naftogaz" to pay delivered in September of gas (or just wait traders relative the release of "Naftogaz" to the market) could be the cause of the devaluation of the hryvnia in the first half of the week. The rapid growth of the dollar in the first half of the week (7, 944 7, 958 USD. / $) Raised its short-term devaluation expectations currency forwards bespostavochnye (NDF), but does the market with NBU intervention lowered expectations of traders. The dynamics of the foreign exchange market last week confirms key role of the National Bank on it. Therefore, we reserve our opinion on that exchange rate volatility in the market will be minimal in case timely intervention of the NBU. On the basis of statements made by the regulator that the National Bank will continue to intervene in order to avoid sudden jumps in the exchange rate, we believe that the current week will show relatively low volatility of the exchange rate. Reserves break new records, according to the NBU, the amount of foreign exchange reserves increased on September 6, 1% and peaked in the last two years ($ 34, 67 billion). Moreover, the main increase in reserves will issue Eurobonds Ukraine $ 2 billion Thus the excess demand for currency on a proposal made National Bank to sell $ 670 million from its reserves to support the course. At the same time We believe that this level of support does not indicate the presence of any significant reasons for the devaluation of the Ukrainian currency in the near future, and the current foreign exchange reserves increases the likelihood that the National Bank will support the exchange rate in case of significant fluctuations in market.
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