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"Countless black swans swim today in the global economy Lake "- so vividly described the state of the global economy head IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said. What did he mean? The metaphor of "black swan" has been introduced into economic circulation writer Nassim Taleb and the investor. So he calls the unpredictable events that give rise to a serious crisis consequences for the markets, assuming that investors often forget about the possibility of they arise. According to Strauss-Kahn, the crisis led to the pendulum world economy rocked by the free market to a larger public control, and to complicate the structure of the global economy. However, for stability that, in his opinion, insufficient. Need to reform the regulatory system financial sector. "The crisis has grown from a culture of reckless risk, and this culture, unfortunately, is alive and well so far "- said the head IMF at George Washington University. The statement of the Fund has intensified efforts of analysts who deployed brainstorm problems of the global economy. Do not remain aloof from this process and Ukrainian economic and financial experts. Last week they spent in the Kiev club business Belgravia discussion of "stagflation or deflation. War or Peace. " The global financial crisis in their view, a crisis of overproduction, and is far from complete. One reason for this - lack of opportunities for extensive development global economy. And the intense feature can only give transition to the sixth technological mode. But in an evolutionary way to reach to it does not work. Therefore, the independent expert predicts Dmitry Moshalko, "will be a revolutionary transition." However, in his opinion, intensification of cost-push inflation is caused by the ongoing infusion of money into economy by central banks. As soon as the monetary intervention stop, then fall down and inflationary pressures. The expert notes that inflationary scenario does not solve the problems that led to the crisis, but only moves them to Future ... Technical re-equipment in the world, according to Moshalko, can spur just a military conflict or other shocks, as has happened many times before. Chief Financial Officer "Factoring Finance» Yuri Derevko notes that in modern conditions became very difficult to identify causal communication crisis in the economy. At the same time he believes that among Crisis factors clearly present the effect of inflating the economy with money, that does not bring the expected stimulating effect. In the goods sector long-term demand, experts say, is deflation. At the same time in the economy there is such a thing as biflyatsiya, when at the same time falling prices for commodities with high added value rapidly rising prices the goods of daily consumption - food and clothing. Breaking vicious cycle (reduction of costs by companies - rising unemployment - reducing demand for goods), as the Derevko - this is exactly the dilemma that facing the global economy. Output, in his view, is as in search of economic incentives and the possible shocks. With respect to developing countries such as Ukraine, then in his opinion, they have sufficient capacity to move forward. For Ukraine, he, for example, is change in the structure of the economy in the direction of the significant development of domestic market. Thus, the expert considers himself a supporter of the inflationary scenario for our country to the point, as will be found some other approaches. Renowned expert Eric Naiman, appeared this time as a manager Partner Capital Times and moderator of the debate in the business club, suggests that all that happened recently in the global economy has a random character. He cited Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin, who believes that the world in small steps is to create a world government and this formed the necessary institutions that will help with crisis pushing for it. "There is a flock of sheep and shepherd is that they manage, - Draws Nyman processes occurring in the world - and with their help, through Shepherd crisis - then inflation, then deflation ... But in fact, all these fluctuations - a great opportunity to make money and survive. " "Give me a hand printing press, and I will not care who makes the laws "- a joke in this place one of the panelists, as if anticipating the performance of the Chairman supervisory board of bank "National Credit" Andrew Onistrat. He focused on the situation in the Ukrainian banking system. The market, on its words, expect lower rates. And it fuels the creation of new enterprises, new business areas and their activities. According to the banker, the process "Now is actively post-crisis area". "This - plus" - says Onistrat. A minus he believes that the country is still not cheap money. Although banks are quite active with the regulator are calculated for refinancing, he notes, are large holders of money corporations and to a lesser extent, individuals, whereas before it was the opposite. In this large Holders rely on yield of 15-16% per annum, looking for her and as a result of find. But the liabilities of the flow of large banks in smaller banks. Except of non-resident banks, says the banker, asked the IMF to "Start small choke." But, fortunately, the relevant requirements of the Fund are only advisory, said the banker, but still, In his opinion, more recently between residents and there kind of water (50 to 50). At the same time decided to deploy non-residents consumer credit and apply for this relatively low rate, liabilities based on their low (10%) rates. This allows to determine margin of 15% in local currency. But these rates are only for a loan Number of cars. Mortgage "injury" of nonresidents, said Onistrat yet not healed, and the biggest "wounds" of the top three, so the building sector is not credited. Everyone is waiting for someone to perform an instigator this process. But mortgages are still not all like that, since the bankers see that it is still declining, and most likely will not stop - no trades, but the most expensive segment. The remaining growth provide (percent five pre-crisis figures) the cheapest one-and two-bedroom apartments somewhere in the suburbs. "My deep conviction - said the banker - that this segment starts to develop as long as we, the Ukraine, again did not like non-residents. Before the mortgage would be dead. " "To make it come alive, in this market should not be too much money - concludes Onistrat and adds: - We turned to the parent companies of nonresident banks in the case without pens, which sorry to throw and hard to bear. " The situation in financial markets, According to the banker, will be determined mainly strategy of the National Bank. If he starts to lower rates to stimulate lending, which, according to Onistrat, quite logically, it will increase banks' loan portfolio, and, consequently, increased production. But this trend is fraught by the fact said the banker, that part of the population, which "feeds from the deposits," this source of income dries up. I moderated this raises the question: "But can thus be pushed out of people especially in consumption? .. ". But Onistrat notes that in the regions of Ukraine of "literally no ' People live very poorly, and because most of the revenue is spent on gas move on subsistence farming. In this regard, the banker stands up for free land market, which may change the situation in agriculture. And fears that if the farmer before anything got the rent, then buy it now sell land for Daewoo Lanos, and then he did not have enough money to finish the the roof of the garage ... Because Onistrat even predicts social unrest and a new land redistribution ... and expresses its deep "bank" the belief that "consumer loans now can not go, because in a country flowing trend in incomes of the population. " Promising areas of lending banker considers small and medium business, and most importantly - agriculture. If there add technology, he says, it will appear huge growth potential.
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