Despite the stability of the hryvnia , Ukrainians still do not trust her in the past six months, demand for foreign currency in the cash market more than two times oversubscribed . In March, the Ukrainians have bought from banks currency in the $ 2 , 656 billion, was sold - at $ 1 , 552 billion
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In 2011, the national currency continues to amaze stability. For four months official exchange rate rose by less than 1 penny, fluctuations in the cash market did not exceed 2-3 kopecks. (From mid-January the dollar did not rise above 8 USD). While the hryvnia easily fits into the Finance Ministry forecast (Government laid in the budget-2011 the average annual rate of 7, 95 UAH / USD). And the National Bank is ready to to much for the continued stability of the domestic currency. Despite the official introduction of floating exchange rate regime, the regulator continues to active policy of exchange rate constraints. Moreover, as the devaluation, so and from the revaluation. In late April, the first deputy head of the National Bank Yuri Kolobov said that the regulator has no plans to keep the hryvnia exchange rate at any particular level, however, increase the flexibility of the course should be gradual. From the beginning the NBU - an active participant in the interbank market. For four months he acquired Interbank more than $ 1, 5 billion to the beginning of May, international reserves reached the new historical maximum - $ 38, 192 billion (previous record - $ 38, 159 billion - was recorded on the eve of the devaluation of the landslide - September 25, 2008,). Last year, foreign exchange reserves rose by regulator 30, 5%. Until the end Of 2011 National Bank plans to increase reserves to $ 40 billion in NBU reserves - a powerful tool for maintaining the stability of the course. At least in the short term and on condition that the regulator will continue regular intervention. How to behave in the market without the support - is unknown. In December of 2010, for example, National Bank had only not to enter the market, the dollar crept up, and cash exchange rate crossed the mark of eight hryvnia. But when the regulator restored the intervention (for this he did not even have to make deals, market participants have been exposed sufficiently indicative quotations) market immediately calmed down and returned to the course of the previous level. "In 2011 the average annual rate of national currency will be at 7, 92 UAH / USD », - director predicts analytical unit the group of companies "Investment Capital Ukraine" Alexander Valchishen. Now the trade deficit is more than covered revenue in the financial account, so the pressure on the hryvnia exchange rate does not. Moreover, the National Bank is forced to buy up the surplus foreign currency. Without this, the dollar would be below market. In addition, the controller can go to a small fortification national currency to curb inflation (after all, in 2011 the main priority still struggle with higher prices). Chairman of the Supervisory Board estimated the bank's "Center" Alexander Okhrimenko summer, when business activity is traditionally low, rate may drop to 7, 77, 75 UAH / USD. By the end, the currency might appreciate 8, 1-8, 2 UAH / USD. "Traditionally, the beginning of the heating season demand currency will increase the trade deficit as a result of price increases in resource goods in world markets will grow, "- explains a senior analyst of the International Centre for Policy Studies, Alexander Acorn. A slight devaluation - It is rather a recommendation than a forecast. As before, the main risk for national currency - the termination of cooperation with the IMF. All tranches allocated in 2011, should aim to replenish reserves of National Bank. However, further cooperation with the Fund in question. And while the government is determined how to carry out pension reform and how to raise energy prices for different categories of consumers, the regulator in accordance with the requirements IMF in the near future should reduce regulation of the currency market. "NBU wants to allow banks to purchase and sell foreign currency during one day, and intends to introduce a currency swap (swapping - a temporary buyout currency control in financial institutions. - Ed.) "- Explains the head of the department analysis of financial markets ING Bank Ukraine Alexander Pecheritsyn. Termination cooperation with the IMF could lead to capital outflows from countries like what we saw in 2008. Its effects can be unpredictable. However, while all respondents Contracts analysts are optimistic. It is true that if in 2011 the prerequisites for a sharp devaluation is not observed, what about a course of conduct in 2012 and there is no single opinion. Probability repeat the scenario in 2008, though not great, but there. In 2011, as in 2007-2008, the trade balance deteriorates. Inflation is gaining momentum. A stable exchange rate of hryvnia at rising prices only aggravates the situation: The Politics fixed exchange rate unfair to local producers and provokes a rise in imports.
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