Ukrainian banking system is experiencing the most severe stress since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
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March 22 leaders of the largest commercial banks should provide Ukrainian President turnaround plan to save the Ukrainian banking system. The job Viktor Yushchenko issued a joint Ukrainian bankers after meeting held on March 11. Financiers will have to develop a plan that addresses a number of pressing issues at once: the risk of further devaluation of hryvnia deposit outflow, the deterioration in asset quality, capital inadequacy. No money, even when they have the domestic financial system is experiencing severe shortage of liquidity caused by the total crisis of confidence. Distrust of the population and business to the banks led to a significant outflow of deposits. From October to March, only physical persons taken from the banking system of more than 50 billion hryvnia. Business also does not seek to hold funds in bank accounts - for the last five months of the legal person was taken more than 27 billion hryvnia. Thus, less than six months, Ukrainian banking system lost fourth of the entire deposit base. But not only people do not believe financial institution - Bankers mistrust for each other effectively froze interbank credit market. The cost of overnight since the beginning of the year, even in "good" days, not down below 20% and the maximum price of "Night of money" rolls over in February for 120%. However, even in those days, when the remnants of the correspondent accounts of banks are at high levels (sufficient evidence of hryvna resource in the system), the cost of interbank lending still remained very high. On According to bankers, it is because the "free" is the hryvnia available in 2-3 large banks with foreign capital, which froze his work on the interbank market. It should be added that he no longer trusts the Ukrainian bankers and leaders of the National Bank. In autumn 2008, the NBU has generously refinanced commercial banks - for the October-November were given 74, 7 billion hryvnia (Including overnight). This amount is totally blocked the outflow of deposits for specified period (about 42 billion hryvnia). However, bankers are in no hurry use the money to support the National Bank of liquidity - a far more promising using these tools they found the foreign exchange market. Subsequently, the guide National Bank has acknowledged that the refinancing funds put pressure on the course hryvnia. Because this year's National Bank provides a much more cautious money banks (January - $ 5 billion in February - 15 billion hryvnia). In addition, the NBU is trying to financial institution to monitor the use of these funds and in case of separation Bank introduces significant amounts of refinancing it curator. Cut down branch on which sat another problem is the devaluation of the Ukrainian banks hryvnia. In the autumn of financial institution is not bad-earned currency speculation, but now they are forced to urgently seek billions of hryvnia in capitalization. Due to the revaluation of foreign currency assets (devaluation of hryvnia October-December was 65%) the total assets of banks in the last quarter 2008 increased by 28, 6%. The banks reduced, if not suspended new lending. "With the quality of the loan portfolio of the situation is ambiguous - Currency devaluation, coupled with a decrease in real incomes and businesses, and the predominant amount of foreign currency loans lead to an increase in bad loans in bank portfolios, "- says analyst investment group, "Socrates" Roman Sirotyan. What scale will reach level of bad debts in the system, to predict now, no one not taken. Bankers state that at the moment it is already 10-12%, and claim that further growth of bad debts in primarily dependent on the behavior of the hryvnia. Deterioration in asset quality forcing banks to increase allocations to reserves, while asset bubble forcing them to increase capital. According to analysts investment company "Troika Dialog Ukraine", for the capitalization of the entire system (If there is no further deterioration in the macroeconomic environment) is required about 46 billion hryvnia. Where the money is I have three Ukrainian banks options on how to solve the problem of capital shortage. First - look for financial help shareholders. That is the path followed by subsidiary banks of powerful Western financial groups, as well as financial institutions that make up the largest domestic FIGs. Second - ask for help from the state. The state budget for 2009 provided 44 billion hryvnia in the capitalization of the banking system. "In support of States in the near future may apply to about 10 banks. In the first all it is the big banks with the Ukrainian capital, the owners are not have the funds to increase capital. "Rodovid" and have expressed Ukrgasbank their desire to attract public capital ", - says Roman Sirotyan. And the third - out of the market, joining the more successful the bank or declared bankruptcy. "Consolidation of the banking system in Ukraine is inevitable in We recorded a lot more financial institutions (185 banks beginning of March. - "BUSINESS") than is necessary to cover the demand for financial service population, especially in times of crisis ", - said deputy chairman Erste Bank Paul Tsetkovsky. Also a serious problem of Ukrainian banks is a large debt load. It is estimated the NBU, in early February total debt Ukrainian financial institutions was 38, 4 billion dollars, of which in 2009 banks will have to pay about 8, 7 billion dollars. External capital markets is firmly closed for Ukrainian banks, so expect to refinance or restructure debt is not necessary. (The exceptions are some banks with foreign capital.) And in the background the continuing outflow of deposits to banks will be very difficult to accumulate the necessary funds. Next worse, but not for long forecast that the worst Ukrainian banks is over, does not undertake any financier, most concurs that the situation could deteriorate even more. "We touch the leaked liquid to the bottom near the end of 2009. In the first half of the year, all banks will be through auditing. UAH and real estate reached new equilibrium levels. In the second half of the year will already see some banks go out of the market. A those financial institutions that will be able to fully assess the economic situation. And although I do not believe in a significant increase in the second half of 2009, but the drop is finished ", - says Paul Tsetkovsky forecasts. Even less rosy prospects for the resumption financiers estimate of confidence in banks. "Confidence in banks will recover slowly, the speed of this process will depend on whether banks that are now troubled, return to normal operation and to fulfill their obligations to customers, " - Says Roman Sirotyan. "Undermining confidence in the banks was critical. By the financial institution label was attached to the source of all problems. According to my projections, the trust be restored until mid 2010 "- adds Tsetkovsky.
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