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Главная / Недвижимость - Новости  / Самые интересные

Кредиторов затравили: грядет стремительный рост числа дефолтов?

20.07.09  
The corporate bond market in January -July, faced a wave of total arrears .
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Ukrainian companies or by crook trying to delay payment on previously issued bonds: experts estimate that the actual payments schedule today are made only 25-30% of the securities. In all other The issuer is or try to negotiate with investors to restructure debt, or at all to disown her. Do not pay the financiers and builders Experts now give different data on payments for corporate issuers bonds. "In January-June, our agency has recorded a technical defaults Issue 16 by 12 issuers of bonds and a full default. In the latter If we are talking about the company "Insaharprom-K", the main activity of which the manufacture and sale of sugar: the company has not paid interest A series of bonds totaling 50 million USD. "- said" DS "director Department of rating agency research, "Credit Rating" Olga Shubina. "To our knowledge, made a technical default in the first half of 35 companies worth about 2 billion USD. Full of defaults were three producer Pipe UTIST (implemented in March 2007, the issuance of bonds for 50 million USD. - "DS"), as well as companies' Insaharprom-K "and" Rush "(a network of shops" Eve ") who failed to make coupon payments on 170 million USD. "- supplemented its bond analyst IC Dragon Capital Olga Slivinskaya. Interviewees "DS" experts say that the vast majority of issuers even before the timing of payments on its corporate bonds launched a campaign to restructure. "In my estimation, the full benefit obligations are performed today only 30% of bond issues, "- said," DS "CEO of AMC "Ineko-Invest" Oleg Morkva. According to the financiers, in the first half period repayment of corporate bonds came to a total of 5 billion UAH. on offer - a 10 billion USD. Almost 100% of cases with onset offer investors tried to take advantage of them. True, it could very rare: in most cases, issuers have agreed to postpone. "Most only met two schemes restructuring. The first - a deferral of payments the revision of interest rate: for example, the issuer offered to pay right away up to 10-30% of total debt, and repayment for the remainder of the stretched two to three years under the increased rate, which reached 20-30% per annum (this of releases, which were originally made by 12-15% per annum). According to this scheme restructured their debts LuAZ (issue 2005 of 130 million USD.) and PC "skirts" (2007 edition to 100 million USD).. The second option - is paying off at a discount: the issuer is now offering to repay debt, for example, 30%- discount. Thus came "Trading house" Amstor "restructured payments on bond issues, which it floated in March and June 2007 was worth 100 million USD. "- said" DS "Olga Slivinskaya. Issuers are covered crisis Soaring defaults of issuers Corporate bonds account for several factors: lower demand for the products of companies, the devaluation of the hryvnia, which caused increased Payments on bank foreign currency loans and the overall debt burden on them, as well as the low liquidity of the financial market. And reduced payments bonds explain the desire of enterprises to wait a time of crisis. Interviewees "DS" experts say that often stretch out the payment schedule try and financially stable company, who, referring to economic crisis, simply want to delay the fulfillment of its obligations based on inflation. In the near future financiers did not expect an increase payment discipline among issuers. "Many companies do not currently willing to pay on its bonds. Therefore, to avoid default on the part of bonds will be impossible, "- said the" DS "analyst investment fund" Interfon " Victoria Kernesh. And despite the fact that the volume of payments in the second half will be grow. "In July-December, the time for repayment of the releases on the estimated $ 6 billion and the offer of 11 billion USD. "- said" DS "Olga Slivinskaya. According to optimistic forecasts in full before the end of the year will continue served up to 30% of emissions, pessimistic - up to 15-20%. Bonds Expensive In this situation, the experts do not expect a revival of the corporate bonds, which fell into a deep sleep in the first half. "The market average, trades bonds with almost non-existent, placing most of technical in nature ", - explained the" DS "Deputy Chairman of the Board Bank "Khreschatyk" Olga Ratushnyuk. According to the financiers, in January-June, placing Bonds started only 15 issuers, while during the same period 2008 - 117. Of the major issues can be identified "Ukrtelecom" with the release of 200 million USD. and the State Mortgage Institution - by 502 million UAH. "The majority of bond issues to date not available. It due to low investor interest, "- commented," DS "state Olga Shubina market. Investors do not risk to invest in corporate bonds even after a serious increase returns on them, from 15-17% in July 2008 to 28-30% this month. Interviewees "DS" experts admit enhancing the corporate bond market until 2010, and then only in the event of increased bank lending (the issuers will be able to perekreditovyvatsya). "Cases of the placement will be rare. On the market be able to enter only first-tier issuers, which have the highest credit quality. Most likely, this will be the representatives of the banking sector or system companies, such as "airport" Borispol "," Ukrposhta "- predicted for the "DS" expert debt markets investment firm Concorde Capital Alexander Klimchuk. Also allow the activation of the financiers of speculators who interested in bonds this summer. "In recent years very active carried purchase by speculative investors in the secondary bond the market at bargain prices. This was done for the issuer to sell their profitable discount " - Said the "DS" head of financial market analysis JSB "ING Bank Ukraine "Alexander Pecheritsyn. Simultaneously, experts predict further increase in interest rates on corporate bonds: according to the optimistic forecasts they can still go to 1-2% per annum, pessimistic - on 3-5%.

 

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