Following global trends , domestic stock market has grown over the past week 6, 6 % dynamic growth of world stock markets has caused a surge optimism among Ukrainian traders and investors. Last week's index Ukrainian Stock Exchange (BE) grew by 6, 6 %.
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Indicator exchange PFTS was not so frisky and added 3, 2%. "Now the real Active Players flowed on the UX, so the quotations of securities on this site more objectively reflect market trends. In addition, the index basket PFTS includes 20 papers, of which 30-40% is traded, and the basket UB consists of 10 fairly liquid shares "- explain what caused this discrepancy index, the manager of the Department of Trade investment company, "Galt \u0026 Taggart Securities' Vladimir Volkov. However, the indices have grown without a significant increase in activity in the market. Thus, the UB for a week gain by selling shares of 31, 9 million UAH. that more than just the week before last 4, 2 mln. The volume on the PFTS were more - 51, 7 mln., Which exceeds figure a week ago at 27, 9 mln. Orientation to the West The main and probably the only reason for the growth of domestic indices has positive external markets. U.S. and European indices rapidly increased against the background of the positive statements of the largest banks and corporations. Their results for the II quarter exceeded the most optimistic forecasts analysts. "U.S. Corporate news and statistics last week, allow market participants expect the positive development of the script and a more rapid the end of a global recession ", - said Vladimir Volkov. Negative Ukrainian news could not have a significant impact on mood domestic traders. Thus, the deterioration of the forecast of the World Bank (WB) with respect to fall in GDP in Ukraine in 2009, from 9 to 15% was expected by the market and did not affect the mood of the stock players. "There were no unexpected domestic news Last week was not, so no resonance in the market they have not produced " - The head of analytical department of the investment group, "Socrates" Konstantin Stepanov. Positive rife almost all liquid shares of the Ukrainian market last week, rose in price by 5-17%. The most popular among traders used paper Ukrsotsbank and Raiffeisen Bank Aval. Last week they rose by more than 10%. Experts attribute the the success of Ukrainian financial institutions so that the results of American banks Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan in II quarter were significantly better than expected, and increased investor confidence in the financial sector. But almost 30% rise in stock-ing Megabank last week traders account for very different reasons. "Until recently, the price of securities was less than par, and they are actively buying up the bank's main shareholder (General Director of "Turboatom" Victor Subbotin. - "BUSINESS"). Took advantage of the players who were in the portfolios of stocks, and profitable to sell, so the price has risen even at a premium, "- says a major trader of investment company. Also, was not deprived of the attention of traders and investors "Ukrnafta". Her paper rose by 8%. Additional impetus for growth in the value of these shares have voiced plans to "Ukrnafta" to sell the gas at market price. "There was information that" Ukrnafta "has started to sell part of gas produced chemical companies at higher prices than it sells to the public. In connection analysts expect this to increase its revenues, "- says trader investment company "Renaissance Capital" Michael Zavadovsky. Without faith Although the future magical result of the Ukrainian market for Last week, analysts are in no hurry to predict its rapid growth in the future. "In our view, equity markets have almost completely taken into account end of the recession in stock prices. Therefore we expect a heavy fall to the stock markets. To end of summer domestic sites will be sideways, and the volume Trading will remain at low levels ", - said General Director of Asset Management Sincome Asset Management Andrew Petruk. EXPERT OPINION Last week's hryvnia fell on the interbank market by nearly 2%. Is strengthening of the dollar impact on the Ukrainian stock market? How do you assess prospects for the hryvnia to the end of 2009? Alexei Blinov economist of investment company Astrum Investment Management Both the devaluation of the hryvnia, and the devaluation expectations are not conducive to the arrival of investors to Ukraine. Attachments foreigners in the Ukrainian assets in most cases are associated with foreign exchange risk. K Moreover, many foreign investors holding back prospects for an early election - In such a situation, non-residents prefer to freeze their plans for entry. However, foreign capital has largely gone from the Ukrainian market, so expect a serious outflow of non-resident investors as a result of the current devaluation is not necessary. The current devaluation reflects Foreign exchange market expectations. Virtually no one expects to strengthen the hryvnia in the current year, which sets the general psychological tone in the market. Volumes imports still exceed exports and capital inflows into the country is too low to compensate for the currency requirements for external payments. We expect that the peak of devaluation of the hryvnia will come this fall, when the course will be reach a value of 9 USD. / $. By the end of 2009, the course will return to the level close UAH 8. / $. This will be facilitated by several factors. First, in October-November, will understand that the payments on foreign payments was enough to successfully implement. Second, due to the effect of statistical base will come out encouraging macro-economic statistics on a wide range of industries. Thirdly, the authorities will try to support the hryvnia eve elections. Dmitry Tomaszewski head of sector analysis group of companies "TEKT" Certainly, the rapid devaluation of the hryvnia in 2-3% reduced the current income of speculators, who converted the dollars to participate in short-term operations. From our point of view, the medium future devaluation of hryvnia positive impact on the stocks of exporting companies. Companies with a large import components in its production costs, vnutriukrainskie but sales will suffer further losses, which adversely affect the course of their shares. Additional losses also bear the banks, so in most cases falling hryvnia exchange rate does not improve the solvency their borrowers, but it increases the monthly debt service payments. Further devaluation of the hryvnia negative impact on economic situation in Ukraine, as it significantly stimulates inflation. Price increase for goods and services, superimposed on lowering disposable income, leads to a drop in sales of companies and reduce their profits, which negative impact on stock prices of companies. Total liabilities Ukrainian companies until the end of 2009 exceeds the capacity to attract new loans, the trade balance is also unlikely to be positive in the next months. These circumstances give reason to expect further depreciation UAH more than 15%.
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