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Курс доллара: причины роста и прогнозы на осень

Ukrainian currency market has once again observes the effect of \"American slides . \" So, after a long period of stabilization policy in the region of 7 , 7 grn. , Dollar sharply and unexpectedly for many overcome a psychological mark in 8 grn. Experts point out that for such large fluctuations is not sufficient grounds and course changes depend largely on the policy of the NBU. In the National Bank is considered an objective reason for the devaluation of the hryvnia - the social, monetary and fiscal policies .
What do you think? say
According to experts, the strengthening of the hryvnia will contribute to the next tranche of IMF, but the range of forecasts is wide enough - 7, 7 grn. to UAH 9. per dollar. Causes The main cause of the growth situation, prevailing in the interbank market, the experts called the National undefined behavior Bank, as well as tightening of administrative measures by the regulator. Thus, over the past few weeks, the NBU has introduced several innovations, such as special account for the redundancy of the funds on correspondent accounts of banks (and thus "Compressed" hryvnia weight and banks have in stock is less likely to purchase foreign currency). Also NBU has restricted access to their banking support, that do not follow in quotes exhibited average rate (which Some experts say biased - towards a stronger hryvnia) and do not comply with the limits on open foreign exchange position. "These measures are an extension of administrative control over the exchange rate with part of the National Bank ", - says head of financial market analysis "ING Bank Ukraine" Alexander Pecheritsyn. The banker agrees that the regulation market is the direct responsibility of the central bank, but his actions sometimes lead to the opposite effect. "By robbing the banks of the opportunity to buy currency with intervention, clients of these banks are forced to either meet their demand for cash currency market, which is now in deficit currency, or postpone the purchase of currency at a later date. "Pecheritsyn A. warns that this situation creates a pent-up demand, which could lead for another increase in the value of foreign currency. According to the economist Investment Group (IG), "Socrates" by Mikhail Salnikov, at the moment there is a "latent confrontation between the NBU and the interbank players." "Each party seeks to impose other rules. Often, players are responsible that is forced market, trying to force NBU to play by their rules. In this situation, the crackdown was an attempt to discipline the regulators troublemakers. Such actions can have a positive effect calming unruly players, and a negative effect in which escalate the confrontation, and market volatility will increase, "- says M. Salnikov. The economist believes that NBU is too late has taken a tough position in relation to the speculators and undisciplined players in the interbank market: "Such measures must be implemented during the relative stability of the currency market in the spring. Then they would not cause such a sharp reaction from the participants interbank, while it is now possible escalation of the conflict and out of the market the control of the regulator ", - says Mikhail Salnikov, noting that the policy NBU in the current environment should be "tough, but as transparent as possible." Transparency of interventions - yet another problem of the market, experts say. National Bank of Ukraine is the main seller of dollars, so sentiment in the market largely depends on whether the regulator goes to the intervention on the interbank market. If the NBU goes to the intervention, the dollar begins to decline, but when the National Bank to leave the market - sellers of currency decreases and, consequently, at times reduced its proposal, the dollar is growing. "As soon as The National Bank is included in these "games", we immediately observe the strengthening of hryvnia. As soon as the NBU for some reason can not sell dollars (for example, He just finished limits - it is also possible to intervene not unlimited) - once there they (USD - Ed.) deficiency and turns buyers' market - says councilor chairman of "Ukrgasbank" Alexander Okhrimenko. - For example, on Wednesday, July 29, wanting to buy foreign currency Interbank was 22, while selling it offered only four. " According to bankers, interbank players repeatedly was presenting the regulator claims that it does not make previously announced by the intervention and sells currency selectively without explaining the criteria for selecting buyers. "This question does not contribute to stabilizing the currency market ", - said Mikhail Salnikov. Another reason for increasing demand for the currency and the devaluation of the hryvnia bankers consider an unbalanced balance of payments. "Based on the status of payments account, consolidated balance sheet of which is still negative, the demand for some currency exceeds the supply, which is compensated by intervention NBU ", - said A. Pecheritsyn of" ING Bank Ukraine ". However, According to him, arising from speculative sentiment still contribute excess demand for currency from the corporate sector and the public in an attempt to secure financial savings from a possible devaluation. "In If the growth of devaluation expectations and the emergence of panic in the market sharply increases the demand for currency, and the offer down, as companies do not in a hurry to sell it, hoping for another rate increase, "- adds A. Pecheritsyn. For its part, National Bank imposes liability for intentional wrap speculative demand and panic in the interbank market to "a group of banks." According to the regulator, some banks are holding the currency at the box office, by provoking its an artificial shortage and, consequently, the overvaluation. Similar opinion and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. According to her, in the foreign exchange market of Ukraine is now under "absolutely rigid and well-planned operation to destroy the hryvnia through speculative trading, "while "There is no reason to fell the national currency." Premier said that the requested section of the State Tax Administration Ukraine (STA) to find out which banks are involved in "this large-scale speculative program for making money, leading to the destruction of the currency, " once again stating that that the Cabinet has no control over the policies of the National Bank of Ukraine, which is responsible for the course. Indeed, bankers confirm that there have been attempts to set the interbank market rather "strange and inappropriate" quotes that play on the rising cost of dollar. However, experts note: this situation is not for interbank there is something extraordinary and ordinary is, moreover, such speculative attempt to quickly suppressed by the market. "There are times when salespeople leave currency on the market with deliberately exaggerated quotes - but it is normal practice. This has always been and will continue ", - A. Okhrimenko, adding that in such situations, market participants act with maximum caution. Forecasts of course experts agree that after the announcement International Monetary Fund (IMF) decision to provide Ukraine the next credit tranche of $ 3, 3 billion, foreign currency earnings to the country will increase. This factor in the short term can reassure the market and return dollar has already become accustomed to the rate of 7, 7 grn. "This decision (to grant tranche - ed.) may become a reference point for further movement foreign exchange market in the short term ", - predicts economist of the investment company "Astrum Investment Management" Alexei Blinov. "After the information the allocation of the next credit tranche IMF is hoping that now the National Bank will be more actively enter the market and reinforce its dollars "- agrees A. Okhrimenko. Indeed, the decision to provide Ukraine the third tranche was adopted by the Board of Directors of the IMF on Tuesday, July 28, and on Wednesday the dollar passed in a little price, and despite the fact that NBU is not supported by the market. "In Wednesday devaluation of hryvnia has slowed considerably. Interbank FX Market closed at UAH / USD 8, 1870-8, 2420, the hryvnia has lost 0, 7% of the cost against the dollar. NBU was absent from the market as a purpose auction for a dollar ", - says Alexander Blinov. Experts believe that NBU reserves to date are adequate to maintain the rate of at 8 USD. "To curb the course did not require much effort. Given the substantial foreign exchange reserves and the imminent arrival of the next tranche from the IMF, the National Bank should be carried out daily during the intervention 1, 5-2 weeks to knock down the panic and return rate to previous levels, "- says A. Pecheritsyn of "ING Bank Ukraine". For its part, analysts IG "Socrates" consider the main question the feasibility of these actions. "When support the current values


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