The Ukrainian stock market , a few months ago, located in the vicinity multi-year lows, has gotten a second wind.
What do you think? say
Share prices have gone up rapidly, demonstrating the fact polutorokratny growth! It was not until mid-June. At the moment The situation is stable - quotes are not growing and not diminishing. As experts say, stock market is in sideways. But anxiety is not the players, and that's fine ... Instead the preface in the media reported that some of the luminaries of the Ukrainian stock business is ready to give up management of public institutions, co-investment due to adverse situation on the securities market. At first glance, surprising that the knowledgeable people make these decisions at a time when everything seems to be not so bad. Indeed, until recently the situation seemed worse, the rapid devaluation of UAH (30% month on month), the fall in industrial production, increase the problem of bad bank debt. This is not surprising - Ukrainian officials and experts, no longer give superoptimisticheskie forecasts (recall summer of last year, when many of them did not want to believe in the obvious and stated that the global financial crisis should somehow bypass Ukraine party), rushed to the other extreme: to prophesy "horror without end." In this market situation in any country would have a fever, no less. What motivates Ukrainian stock market in general as it is possible to earn? Are there any movements stock price makes any sense? One of the plot on widespread opinion among analysts is that our market there is a conspiracy. For example, the movement is often attributed quotes understanding of major players, rock the boat. You can hear the version of type "is now large investors finally shake out with trading platforms small investors. "There are those who believe in the fact that financial markets are driven by forces behind the U.S. Federal Reserve (if not the CIA), let alone the world Jewish conspiracy and say nothing - to do without it for? People in general tend to believe that a powerful force, and such stories take on their students. Secret difficult to prove, for the same reason it is difficult to prove the absence of conspiracy. But when you consider that the market for hundreds of players who are physically can not agree on - it becomes clear that this theory is likely to far from the truth. Against the conspirators have many other "cool" with money, with who do not agree (and if these "cool" aware of "conspiracy", then it is not difficult to play well against the market - because they are aware of Upcoming his movements). Yes, and any conspiracy, if he really there necessarily would come out to light. Belief in a higher power is characterized by for people, that's just from her little good in the situation of the financial markets. Even if you believe in the unbelievable plot, we can not give any explanation fluctuations, or prognosis, since we are not a member of the "world behind the scenes." Others believe that the market - it's the element, for which there are people. And this is the main problem. Let me explain my thoughts. Dividend simulation As stocks around the world vary too much, and people want receive their profitability, economists have been able to invent the theory of "effective markets "and" rational expectations ". The idea is simple: if we put, for example, Oschadbank to 10 thousand hryvnia, and a year later are going to take 12 thousand hryvnia, that our rate of return will be 20% per annum. Little change problem: after a year we get 12 thousand hryvnia, if we take this and discount the amount at a rate of 20% (ie, divide by 1, 2), we find the current "fair value "of such a deposit, which will be equal to 10 thousand hryvnia. K applied mathematics such shares, referred to as models of discounting. That's only for the securities should predict future dividends and discount them at the appropriate rate. As a result, we obtain the so-called "fair the cost. "Of course, nobody knows the future dividends on shares but they can try to "rationally" to predict, at least to some degree of certainty. Of course, the resulting figure would be inaccurate, but it means you can at least talk about, it's expensive or cheap stock (note In the latter case it is necessary to buy). Is since June 2008 in March 2009, when the stock market "crashed" more than 4 times, people have revised forecasts of future dividends in the Ukraine during the same time? It is obvious that no. Temporary drop in earnings and dividends at year-two-three at the time economic recession is not so crucial for models of discounting: crises will still end, and the dividends are restored to their normal level. Economists and can not give an explanation of why the stock markets so badly shaken. In this case, science can not prove their models is why investors are willing to give the price for some "averaged action" 4 times lower than just a half years after the peak index PFTS, which was recorded in January 2008. All explanations of oscillations will lie in the irrational, irrational behavior of investors on the market. A nonsense by definition can not be explained rationally. If you can not do it, whether economists are able to predict all such fluctuations? In fact, the stock model - not such a utopia, and the stock market even in its most unpredictable periods, poor Watch a couple of times a day may still come to the "fair value". On the other hand, they allow us to understand that the market is too expensive or too cheaply. At least so it should not be disposed of in landfills. Income for resilient, there are some facts that we know about the stock market sure. Long-term securities and grow ahead of many financial instruments. Anyone who holds shares for a long time, will return. For example, in the United States was not a single 20-year period of time when stocks have not outperformed returns deposits or government bonds. Of course, the past is by no means If you can not automatically be extrapolated to the future "one to one." But somehow we can know the future, including if a look into the past. Therefore, it would be correct to study the history of stock markets in those countries where the history shares are not interrupted by the communist experiment. So, in each country, including in Germany, suffered from two wars and hyperinflation in the early 1920s, Japan or South Africa, long-term stock market behaved excellently, bringing a huge real yields. Growth stocks should obviously be explained overall progress, if GDP is growing, we are growing and companies that make this GDP. So if you are an optimist and believe in progress, then the action - good choice. Conversely, people who tend to see the world in black, still since last summer were "on a horse." Many of their predictions have come true, the action fallen, the cost of steel products in international markets decreased 1, 75 times, the hryvnia plummeted more than 70% of the world economy into a deep recession. But remember, whether as a considerable number of pessimists in the winter nvneshnego , when the PFTS index was down 280 points, more fall predicted at 2-2, 5 times? When stocks began to grow, they began to talk about "speculative" nature of growth. Translated from the professional language of the "speculative" growth - It's not real, not fundamental. Of course, to look at life through rose-colored glasses, at least, naive. And sometimes a healthy pessimism - Very useful thing. But it is not always the same should be expected only to fall market? History of various stock markets shows that sometimes a pessimist useful, but too far in any case not worth it. Someone who constantly afraid, at least not receive revenue. On the eve of growth? World economic growth has not yet begun, but on a global scale it - not far away. Economists who focus on forecasting, even in the fall predicted that the bottom of the world economy will by the end of 2009 - early 2010. It seems the way it will happen, and not only in developed countries but also in Ukraine. While it is difficult to prove the real data, and the apparent increase may be not until mid-2010, but some of the leading indicators tell a reversal. Polls in the industry, service sector or consumer surveys conducted in key global economies, say the trend is to reverse. The stock market, incidentally, is one of those "advanced indicators ": in U.S. history, he showed the bottom in about 6-9 months before than the economy as a whole. Required half - three quarters of the year from the date of bottom of the market has not yet passed. But the idea of
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