Active intervention of the National Bank of Ukraine ( NBU) can return policy hryvnia to the level of 7, 7-7, 8 UAH / $ 8 , 33 grn / $ 1 on the basis of trading on Friday, advisor to Chairman of the Board of Ukrgasbank (Kiev), Alexander Okhrimenko .
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"The fate of the hryvnia exchange rate depends on the NBU's interventions on foreign exchange market ... Exporters are in no hurry and will not rush to sell the currency. Therefore, the main largest seller of foreign currency can only speak of the NBU. If interventions will be active, then return to the dollar mark 7, 7-7, 8 UAH / $ will be easy. Otherwise, the reference value of the dollar in the near future there will be 8, 2-8, 5 USD / $ ", - the expert believes. It was reported that to support the national currency exchange rate of NBU since the beginning of the year sold out its reserves of more than $ 7, 6 billion: foreign exchange reserves of the National Bank supported revenue from the International Monetary Fund, which in August and September 2009 may give the country an additional $ 2 billion 04 According Okhrimenko, mainly detonator, which accelerated the devaluation of the hryvnia last week, were money received by investors troubled Rodovid Bank recapitalized by the government. "Unlocking the savings accounts of depositors Rodovid Bank increased the demand for cash currency, as people rushed to convert withdraw money from deposit accounts into the currency devaluation process, which began ... hryvnia further stimulated demand for the currency as to individuals added and entities working in the informal economy "- said he said. The expert also emphasized that the weakening of the hryvnia occurred at lower balances on correspondent accounts with banks. "In fact, due to overflow of money from the banking sector on the cash market and the devaluation of the hryvnia has happened, " - He explained. The experts of rating agency "Credit Rating" in the analytical survey noted the presence of high devaluation expectations in the country. "Despite all taken control measures, speculative currency expectations country remain high, which may further have a significant pressure on the exchange rate, including the population, "- says in the document. The agency reminds that to maintain the course in second quarter 2009 NBU needed to implement the intervention in a $ 1 85 billion, whereas in the first quarter - $ 4 42 billion "people in the National Loans currency is less than 30% of the total indebtedness of individuals, which indicates significant dependence on the asset quality of banks on monetary and exchange rate policy state ", - experts say. Regarding payments to depositors of concern banks, which are carried out after the recapitalization, the review notes that the impact of these actions on the foreign exchange market is limited because much of NBU reduced the banks' own features on the use of mandatory reserves and its own currency. At the same time, according to the agency, limited currency investments (after the ban of foreign currency lending of the population) in the future will reduce demand for foreign exchange resources: the main purpose New borrowing by banks in foreign currency will be refinancing of old debts in case of no possibility of extension of the latter. As reported by dealers Banks, on Monday, August 17, the NBU has declared its readiness to sell foreign currency in the interbank foreign exchange market to 7, 90 grn / $ whereas previous intervention knob on the interbank market conducted August 13 at the rate of 7, 85 UAH / $ 1. On According to market operators, on Monday the interbank market rates to 12-30 amounted to about 8, 08/30, 38 grn / $ 1, while the bidding closed on Friday with levels of 8, 30.8, 36 grn / $ 1.
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