Economic recovery can begin next year . But only if you stop
political chaos , and the state will investments in the economy .
Exactly one year ago, on 15 September 2008, collapsed the largest U.S.
bank Lehman Brothers. This day is considered the formal beginning of the world
economic crisis. Although, of course, a year before the outbreak of the mortgage
crisis in the U.S.. But after the fall of Lehman Brothers global banks turned
lending to each other and it became clear that the crisis will affect everyone. In the
including us, though, until the beginning of October, the government and personally Julia
Tymoshenko assured everyone that "there is no crisis in the country will not." But it
word on the Ukrainian economy could have impact could not. Last
Five years after the "Orange Revolution" in Ukraine held a political mess.
Successive governments were not engaged in reforms and issues of strategic
economic development. However, the authorities did not forget to put yourself in credit
observed fairly good growth of GDP. But in fact, no merit
government and the president was not in it. Kept growth to a simple
formula in the second half of 2005 began to rise sharply the price of raw materials (in
including the major Ukrainian export products - steel and grain), then
also began a massive loans of our banks by Western
banks. Due to this consumer credit boom in the country,
went to increase construction and trade. In 2008, for some few
months of this splendor was gone. In the summer began to fall
prices for steel and grain, which was a blow to exporters (although before they
were decimated by a revaluation of the hryvnia rash in May). In September, after
the collapse of Lehman Brothers, completely cut off the channels of crediting Ukrainian
economy with the West. Banks and themselves sat on starvation rations and put it on
the entire economy by cutting off lending to households and enterprises. Lapsed
inflow of foreign exchange brought down the rate of hryvnia, collapse began trade and industry.
The fall in GDP - up to 20%. Here is a brief background. What we have now and
see whether the light at the end of the tunnel? To this end, we decided to analyze the
Ukrainian and world economy. VILLAGE: TO WHOM THE CRISIS "dear father"
The only sector that achieved an increase over the last year of the crisis -
agriculture. And the closest sibling - food industry - showed a slight
decrease in production volumes (and then mainly due to higher excise taxes on
alcohol). Prices and demand for grain on the world market after last year's meltdown
steadily growing. A devaluation of the hryvnia Ukrainians after switching from expensive
imported food products on the domestic natural products (though in general
goods were bought less). However, all of the above concerns
only large enterprises in the countryside. Small agricultural producer in the near future
time may generally be on the brink of destruction, as the New Year
come under pressure from the WTO adopted laws that actually prohibit the sale of
meat, bacon and milk from domestic farmsteads. BUDGET POLICY CHOKING
Lack of resources for filling the budget forces the government to
to play a dangerous game with the printing of money. It is through emissions, as well as
IMF loans and Cabinet closes the hole in the treasury, paying public sector wages
and pensions (frozen, however, as in 2008). And that issue is not
led to inflation and a drop in the hryvnia, the National Bank promptly (including
by selling foreign currency on the market) shall retire newly printed
money supply. On the other hand, such a policy to empty the money sadit
ration economy and banks. On the large-scale infusions into the real sector of the question
can not be. Thus, the hryvnia is not printed on the economy,
and again on eating away. However, eating away and brings little benefit economy
- Sotsrashody frozen. To complete the picture should be added to increase excise taxes,
requisitions from small businesses, as well as knock-out of taxes "in advance".
Naturally, from that entrepreneurs do not particularly want to invest in
our economy. STEEL: The process has started after the recession
last fall, this key sector of Ukrainian economy (the main
nurse, provides up to 40% of exports) delivers all the signs of recovery.
"In the summer due to the stabilization of world economies and the growth of demand for the metal began
prices rise, the number of orders. The result was the growth in July: on
end of the month - 16% in August - about 10%, "- told us the executive
Director of the Federation of Metallurgists of Ukraine Sergey Pritomanov. "By September, in
We had a 60-65% capacity utilization. The industry reached the level of 2006
volume of production (at the end of last year they were at 1995 levels)
and 2007 - at prices ", - says the head of the department of mining and smelting
complex Glavvneshinforma Vladimir Pikovsky. Helps exporters and falling
hryvnia. "Because of the devaluation of the hryvnia our metal became more competitive
with respect to the products of our competitors - China, Turkey, India, Brazil
and Russia ", - says Nikolay Ivchenko. Experts caution about the future.
"In September-October, plants are already loaded, but by November there are warning
expectations ", - said Vladimir Pikovsky. Primarily due to lower volume
Orders from Asia, but also because of falling prices in China. At the same time, most
Experts believe that the significant drop in demand for steel in the coming
months will not and they will gradually increase production volumes on
with the overall global economic recovery. Thus, Sergey Pritomanov hopes
that the monthly increase in production before the end of the beginning and
2010 will be about 5-10%. BANKS, REAL ESTATE, TRADE:
LESS CREDIT, MORE Bankruptcy crisis in the banking sector has not been overcome.
West still do not crediting our bank (only giving money to "support
pants "to its Ukrainian" daughters "), people trust the banks are not experiencing
and the money they can not be held. Billions of hryvnia deposits outstanding "stuck"
in troubled banks. The biggest of them - "Ukrprombank" and "Nadra" government
and the NBU have not been able to recapitalize - too much money for
this need. Now banks are not only unable to lend to business and population,
but have difficulty with the calculations of foreign debts. Most affected
by the crisis in the banking sector real estate market (no one can buy
housing, as there is no credit), as well as retail. Now put on hold
80% of construction projects throughout the country, and many retailers are on the verge
bankruptcy. According to banking experts of Andrei Onistrat up
end of the year the number of banks with the interim administration will increase in half
times and some banks may be liquidated. Guaranteed to be
afloat only the largest Ukrainian banks and financial-industrial groups (SCM,
"Private"), as well as Russian state banks ("Prominvestbank"
bought 'VEB', and VTB) and Western capital. "Thaw"
in the banking sector can be expected until after the elections - the next
spring. And then only if the stable political situation in the country.
Then the shareholders of banks (and the Western and Russian, and ours) will be able to pour
capital in more money. This means that they will not only "live", but will
to resume lending. But, of course, the former swing until. "Normal
lending to the population and businesses to recover only in 2011, "
- Says head of OTP Bank strategy Eugene Zinoviev. Accordingly,
and the resumption of construction growth in property prices and the revival of trade
wait until the time is not necessary. The Cabinet, however, promises to give 2 billion UAH.
for the completion of housing. But this is minuscule (less than 10% of required). Plus fees
redemption of the housing (2, 5-4, 2 thousand UAH / sq. m) for developers at a loss.
"More importantly, that the market finally allowed foreign companies that
in open competition will build cheaper and better -
complements the independent expert Jaroslav Tsukanov. - They can sell housing
at $ 500-600 per square meter, which will cause our developers stop complaining
for lack of money, and similarly, that is, 1, 5-2 times, and lower prices. "
WORLD ECONOMY: CHINA will help us, the world economy after a half-
falling slowly began to lift his head. This is evidenced released
In August and early September, the data on the dynamics of EU GDP and the U.S.. Thus, the GDP of the largest
eurozone economies - Germany and France, in the second quarter rooted at 0, 3%.
Advances USA modest: just slowing GDP decline of 1, 6%
in the I quarter of 2009 to 0, 3% - in the second. But rejoice too early.
For these figures is the state support its economy the EU and the U.S..
Thus, the number of cars bought by the Germans this summer has increased only by
state program through which residents of Germany could be exchanged your old car
new, having received a supplement of 2, 5 thousand euros. Such a program implemented
and the United States. Summary: In July, industrial production in the United States for the first nine months increased
- At 0, 5%. Such methods of Germany struggled with unemployment - the authorities
offset the employer portion of salaries of employees neuvolennyh. It
German treasury cost of 6 billion euros. That is not multi-billion infusion
economy continued to fall and where it left off - is unknown.
In such circumstances, to expect rapid recovery is not necessary. "Today, thanks to
infusion into the global economy more than $ 20 trillion could only stop falling.
Now, the largest country on the crossroads: to change an inefficient economic
model or continue to pour money on ", - said analyst Eric Naiman.
States have chosen the second way easier, and Europe, seems to have noticed
the first "plus", decided to turn injections. This may come as a shock to fragile
economy and trigger a new wave of crisis. Managing director
IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn also predicts the continuation of the crisis. And the main
problem will be a new wave of unemployment in developed countries (in Spain
it, for example, almost 19%). But in the world, there are positive aspects.
It is above all, China's economy (nearly 8% in the second quarter). It grows
impressive pace. Moreover, mainly due to incentive policies
domestic demand, which allows the Chinese handled the sales drop
Crisis on markets in the U.S. and the EU. Continues to grow and the economy of India. Begins
to overcome the recession and Russia - on the high prices for raw materials and large-scale state support
economy. Growth in these countries, by the way, can spur serious and all
global economy. OUR FINDINGS: UKRAINE WITH THE WORLD OR THE WORLD [
] The growth of the economies of China, India and possibly Russia, means that our
metallurgy and machine building (the main consumer of its products - Russia)
good prospects. Also, continued growth in consumption in China and India
means continued growth in food prices in the world. What we like
for grain exporters - a definite plus. [Http://i.domik.net/_xmlimg/xml_0d4aa88ff6cf992fd0f7bb9402cc2b6dc8f95e87.png
] Continued financial and economic difficulties, the EU and the U.S. indicates that
Western banks are unlikely to re-open for our credit lines. So,
that in the coming year by means of Western Ukrainian banks can not
to resume lending to businesses and the active population. SUCH
HERE ARE FORECAST ... On the eve of and during the crisis Experts
flatly refused to believe in the imminent collapse of the hryvnia. Some were convinced
By the end of the year the return to pre-crisis mark of 4, 85. However, the "Today"
in October 2008 predicted that as well will be gone.
September 10, 2008. Head of Department of Development and introduction of new banking
products "First of the investment," Viktor Ryazanov: "The dollar will rise in the
fall to 4, 85-4, 90 UAH ./$В». Head of Department of Retail Business Development
VAB Bank Shaperenkov Anton: "Cash dollar by year-end will be
Level 4, 9-5, 0 $ ./$В». September 26, 2008. Head of Department
investment banking services "Ukrsotsbank" Eric Nyman: "The current growth
dollar - a typical speculation. It will last 2-3 weeks, then
dollar goes down and the end of year returns to 4, 85 UAH ./$В». October 10
2008. Head of NBU Volodymyr Stelmakh - the agency "Interfax-Ukraine":
"Objective rate should be no higher than 5 UAH. / $. Objectively - as part of
4, 8-5, 0 $ ./$В». Forecast "Today" from October 21: "To save the domestic
producer and exporter of power will be forced to go to considerable
devaluation of the hryvnia. " We have been advised ahead of time to repay foreign currency loans (in
Who has that option), as well as to delay the purchase of real estate
- Prices must fall. Since early November, when the exchange rate of hryvnia finally
exceeded 6, the banking crisis began, the tone of comments of experts
has changed dramatically. November 7, 2008. Independent bank examiner
Andrew Onistrat: "The dollar will go up again soon, and by mid-2009
devalue the hryvnia, the USD to 8-9 ./$В». Data Source: Projections
Experts in media reports when you see the light in the darkness
The Ukrainian economy was much stronger than many thought. We
not defaulted, we have not collapsed banking system, the hryvnia is not collapsed
to 15, as some had forecast last year. The basis of our industry
- Metallurgy, chemistry, food industry - has survived and has the potential to develop and
further. Yes, this is largely the merit of the global market, where rising demand and prices
for our export products. But this is largely the merit of Ukrainian companies
who were able to find new markets, optimize their costs and establish
effective business and, ultimately, to survive. But all this should not
tune in too rainbow fashion. Yes. Business survives. But he does
is largely contrary to the state tax policy is just tougher.
Political instability in the country deters all investors. Yes, the banking
system to avoid collapse. But banks will not lend to the economy, and hence stock
strength it was not for long. Now many people - and companies and people -
survive in the old stockpile. Somebody had something to sell before the crisis, someone
managed to remove the deposit (by the way, across the country have removed tens of billions
hryvnia - huge resource, which is now slowly eaten through physical
and legal entities). The following year, stocks run out. If
no credit crisis will be a new wave of pohlesche all previous ones.
Yes. Because of rising commodity prices is the growth of our exports. But we should not overestimate
its impact on the economy. The same metallurgists have themselves to invest heavily
money to upgrade. The next year will increase the price of gas. And it is unlikely
steelmakers can become donors to the rest of the economy. At the same time
financial inflows from the West, as we see in the next few years expect
is not necessary. This means that the industry, apart from those related to exports,
not live. The situation will be like in the 90s, when life was kindled in the country
only about exports (and for control of the few, remaining afloat,
export enterprises were bloody wars), and the rest of the economy
to remain in empty pockets. Finally, while the country's political chaos, while
continue to worsen relations with our neighbor and largest trading partner
- Russia (and potentially - a major investor in our economy), neither of which
inflow of investments - either foreign or domestic, can be no question.
Finally, no significant growth to continue budget
crisis. Holes in the treasury will have to stop either by printing money (that
sooner or later will cause hyperinflation and devaluation of the hryvnia), or by
new loans from the IMF or Russia, which finally put us in debt
needle. So on the agenda are the following questions. First,
political stabilization. We need clear rules and safeguards
property rights, regardless of the change of political regime. In our
country should not be afraid to invest, not only those entrepreneurs
that have a faction in the parliament and communication in the courts, the Interior Ministry and Prosecutor General's Office. Second,
because of inflows from abroad in our banks in the near future
will, resources should ensure that their state - a key lending
economic development programs. Third, we must normalize relations with
Russia, which will attract additional investment resources through
Russian state banks, who are already working in Ukraine (as well as revitalize our
exports to that country). Fourthly, it is necessary to complete negotiations on a free
Trade with the EU, which could also significantly increase our exports.
Fifthly, it is necessary to stop the crisis to raise taxes and reduce fiscal
pressure on business. That's the agenda for the Ukrainian authorities. Worldly
EXPERIENCE: "WE WON THE CRISIS!" As our fellow citizens to survive and win
crisis, "Today" told repeatedly and continues to do so. We
decided to summarize the experience gathered and took the most interesting crisis
Recipes heroes of our past publications. Be persistent! Metropolitan
Andrei Bondarenko mechanic did not settle for part-time work: "Then