Ukrainian car market has not hit bottom and it will continue to fall
in 2010 , experts believe. Producers are advised not to do while rates
for domestic consumers and actively develop exports.
Ukrainian producers and importers is forecast to continue falling market
passenger cars in 2010 According to various estimates, reducing its volume
could range from 12% to 26%. "Trends in the economy does not allow us to today
talk about a revival of the automotive market. We believe that the bottom
not passed and at the end of this year we will have an unprecedented decline
car sales, "- said President of the Corporation" Bogdan "Oleg Svinarchuk.
In "Bogdan" predicts that in 2010 Ukraine will be sold to no more than
120 thousand cars. Thus, the decline relative to 2009
, when sales totaled, according to the Automobile Manufacturers' Association
Ukraine "Ukrautoprom", 175, 2 thousand cars to be more than 26%. Recall of
the end of 2009 sinking of the domestic market passenger cars to 71, 4%,
that put Ukraine into third place by the fall in Europe after autosales
Iceland and Latvia. Similar predictions and provide other market participants. "We
do not expect a recovery this year. Compared with the previous year sales
further fall. Our forecast - 150 thousand cars. And this is 12% below
last year "- said the head of the PR-department group
companies "AIS" El Fedorov. In "Ukravtoprome" believe that the real result
for the industry - 140 thousand vehicles (ie, minus 20%). "In assessing the potential
we believe the market including the fact that 2009 did not meet even the most
bad expectations. The actual drop has exceeded all forecasts, which were given
Early last year, "- says the director of marketing and industrial and economic
Association analysis of George Ovsyannikov. In late 2009, "Ukrautoprom" predicted
market volume in 2010 of 150 thousand cars. According to the automotive industry
the basis of their negative expectations are the same factors that shaped
state of the market a year ago. "If now any industry and have reason to
talk about passing the bottom, it is only because they have received state
support. This also applies to metals, and chemical industry, shipbuilding.
None of the measures as proposed by the industry auto industry,
was not supported by the authorities. All our initiatives have either been ignored,
or received a negative opinion of the ministries and departments ", - says
Mr. Ovsyannikov. Two main areas of action - encouraging
consumer demand (buyers incentives, loan programs, cancellation of
PF, etc.) and encouraging the production (by tariff and nontariff
regulation). However, such an ardent struggle for the buyer, as in 2009,
at the expense of cheap products, according to market participants in 2010 will be gone.
According to experts, the crisis has forced vendors to temporarily forget about the marketing
and encouraged to think only about how to sell stocks hammered. So
prices will rise, confident "Ukravtoprome." "We expect that the market will stabilize.
Companies will be tuned to its marketing policy. Such price
wars, which were last year, there will be no "- Elly says Fedorov. By
Projections Corporation "Bogdan", prices in 2010 will grow by 5-15% in proportion
inflation. In the continuing decline of sales to the companies still
acutely raise the question of methods to minimize losses, since all possible
cost reductions have already been made in the 2009 downsizing of the industry
amounted to 20 thousand people, many manufacturers have closed the most unprofitable
curtailed unprofitable divisions and projects. Experts are sure to compensate
loss of producers will export orientation. "In the export area
there is a pretty good reserve. In 2008, Ukraine exported 73 thousand
passenger cars, and in 2009 - only 18 thousand If we find new markets or
able to set the momentum lost - can survive, "- said Giorgi Ovsyannikov.
It is true that export opportunities are limited until the Ukrainian automotive industry
unit developments. Since the summer of last year, Russia sold the car
Chevrolet Lanos, produced at the "ZAZ" (included in the corporation "Ukravto").
A few days ago Corporation "Bogdan" starts the car exported to Russia, "Bogdan
2310 pick up ", developed based on Lada 2110." With the foreign markets
company diversifies the risks associated with falling car market
in Ukraine "- noted in the corporation. To promote this model to external
markets, "Bogdan" plans to sign another one in a dealership agreement
from CIS countries.