The economic crisis has already begun to change the structure of industrial production
- Revenues of metallurgy and machine building in the I quarter has decreased
at 33-44 %, while food and energy sectors - rose by 10-35 %.
Increased sales in these segments will continue to adopt that their investment
appeal , experts say.
The fall in sales of industrial products at market prices (excluding
VAT and excise duties) in Ukraine in I quarter of 15, 8%, to 149, 5 billion USD,
Goskomstat reported. At the same time the average annual growth of producer prices of industrial
production for this period was higher - 17, 4%. The decrease in revenue
recorded in all sectors, except for three: the production and distribution
Electricity, gas and water (8, 02 billion USD, up to 39 and 36 billion USD), food
(2, 42 billion USD, up 25, 15 billion USD) and pulp (0, 08 billion to
3, 11 billion USD). The largest decline occurred in metals (-14, 28 billion USD,
to 28 and 38 billion USD) and engineering (-11, 2 billion USD, up 14, 13 billion USD).
As a result, the share of industry in total sales has declined from 24% to a
19%, and in the first place came the production of electricity, gas and water -
its share increased by 8 and 6 percentage points, to 26 3%. Machine-building, reducing
share on 4, 8 pp, up to 9, 5%, yielded third place food
(4 pp, 16, 8%). Experts estimate that this change in structure
production can be maintained before the economic crisis. "If further
increase the share of industry production and distribution of electricity, gas
and water is possible only if a new revision of utility tariffs,
in the food industry to increase sales affect the process of import substitution.
This can lead to the fact that sales in the food industry even exceed
figure industry. This situation will continue until the economic recovery
and the beginning of sales growth in the sectors of metallurgy and engineering "- sure
Analyst IG "Socrates" Michael Salnikov. Director of consulting company
AAA Sergei Infusion sure that the development of the food industry will continue at least
to fall: "In addition to the reorientation of consumers to cheaper domestic
products, in the summer food industry demonstrates the seasonal rise in sales. "
The increase in sales and as a result, cash receipts will increase
investment attractiveness of the industry, experts say.
"These data confirm the predictions of investors that the crisis in
afloat will only industries oriented to the domestic consumer "-
notes analyst Andrew Parkhomenko Concorde Capital. According to him,
major investment in 2009 can expect it to these sectors. Competition
they can only make agriculture and mining and quarrying of energy
minerals (decline of only 352, 8 million USD, or 4, and 5%), the proportion
which in the industry for the year increased from 4, 4% to 5%.