We have analyzed the possible impact on the global economy out of the country
of the crisis.

Ukraine has never been a thing in itself. USSR tightly bound us closer
economic ties with Russia and other Soviet republics, and power
Ukrainian metallurgists and chemists, has made us a piece of the puzzle under the name
global economy. As a result of integration economic crisis
quickly reached full swing here in Ukraine and hosts. To understand
how long do we have to suffer with you, "Today" has tried to analyze
economic situation in countries that have a significant impact on
Ukrainian economy (U.S., European Union, Russia and China) as well as the degree of
this effect. It turns out that Americans can see the light at the end of the tunnel
at the end of 2009, Europeans - at the beginning of 2010, and we - at best
in late 2010 and early 2011. However, this forecast will be rough and
vary depending on the development of world economy and the economies of Ukraine,
as well as governments used the anti-crisis measures. So
We will constantly review the situation in Ukraine and the world to know
in what we are all light and what to expect in the near future. Ukraine + EU
= Exports + Ecology + BANKS Interviewed "Today," experts say
that the situation in the EU economy as a whole is very similar to what happens in
United States, only with some lag. The reason for the delay (the fact that Europe
experiencing now, the U.S. experienced a 2.1 quarter ago) that the crisis started
Yet in America, and the Old World, only later picked up the trend
and now, "repeats the mistakes the Americans." "In addition, the EU economy varies.
Its membership now includes the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, which
in contrast to the more stable the "old" EU member states, carry heavier
crisis ", - said Alexander Shkurpat. According to the updated forecast of IMF,
fall in GDP of the EU in 2009 will be 4, 2% (other estimates fall
will be modest - 3, 7-4, 0%). It is expected that the EU crisis response is also weak
support the economy. The German government, for example, is planning 480
billion euros to support the banking system, though, seems to recognize that their
suffer the same fate previously allocated 120 billion euros, which could not restore
no mutual credit banks or lending them the real economy.
The only major advantage of the EU economy as compared with the United States
- Europeans are not as deep as the Americans got into loans. "Plus the Old
Light - better than in the U.S., the ratio of income to the level of its debt
and high savings. Less - high dependence of the banking system
EU on the situation in Central and Eastern Europe. The threat of default or landslide
devaluations in several East European countries may cause
enormous damage to both the individual and the entire financial system and the EU economy ",
- Said Dmitry Moshkalo. That the Germans DEATH ... The banking system -
indeed one of the weaknesses of Europe. European banks have been actively investing
money in securities of U.S. banks and mortgage agencies, which
first to "fall" due to problems with repayment of ordinary Americans
mortgage loans. As a result, banks have become euro area to report about their
problems in the last year. Then, their losses amounted to about $ 154 billion
In 2009-2020 years. bank losses on bad assets (loans and investments in securities
paper) will be about $ 750 billion Such gloomy figures seemed
would have been killed in Ukraine's financial system, because, according to experts,
about 40-45% of our banking system belongs to the banks of the EU and Russia.
But only saves our banks ... their lack of development. Due to the fact that the Ukrainians
still keep most of the savings under the mattress, our banks do not
able to develop strong financial institutions to the same level of Russian
and Eastern European financial institutions. The economic recovery EU
which is expected in early 2010, will affect Ukraine is much more
than positive news from the U.S.. The fact that trade between Ukraine and EU
much more than with the United States: In January and February, the European
countries accounted for 28% of Ukrainian exports (recall that in the U.S. - only
0, 5%). True, the positive European influence we feel the delay.
"Renewal of the EU and Russian economies, which are among the major trading
partners of Ukraine, will recover to 2011 exports of goods
of our country up to $ 7-8 billion / month. For comparison, six months from August 2008
till February 2009 this figure had fallen to about $ 10 billion to $ 3 billion "
- Says Nikolay Ivchenko. Complicate this process can take many
European countries to further improve the rate of environmentally friendly production
and the further introduction of energy efficient technologies. "In Germany there are tax
incentives on new cars with environmentally friendly engines. In Sweden, the expanded program
related to renewable energy sources. We strongly in this issue
behind, so our products can be further displaced from Europe "- warns
Basil Yurchishin. A hand to us except that European financiers: while banks
with the Ukrainian capital will seek support from state maternal
financial institutions will support its Ukrainian "daughters". UKRAINE RUSSIA +
= Long haul Russia even in times of crisis manages to show
the excess of exports over imports, albeit with a tendency to decrease
this difference: $ 18-19 billion in May and August 2008, and $ 5-6 billion in January-February
2009. Of course, it's oil and gas, which is rich in our neighbor.
However, experts say they have little time to keep the neighbor. "Russia's GDP
in the 1st quarter of 2009 fell by 9, 5% and may start to fall more to the end
year. The fact that in January-March, Russian energy companies
sell energy at the old high prices. That is a fall of 9, 5%
reflects only a reduction in energy exports, and by year-end decline
will increase more and by reducing their prices ", - said Alexander Shkurpat.
This may worsen the situation: in order to maintain the ruble exchange rate Central Bank of Russia
spent 36% of foreign exchange reserves, a few months, unemployment rose
from 6 to 8, 5%, and industrial production, according to experts,
with the fall of 2008, down to the level of the crisis of 1998. Interestingly,
that Russia has adopted an anti-crisis program - under the Obama plan to be in the United States.
"The essence of the 55 items is limited to providing state support to priority sectors
economy, including banking, agriculture, housing
construction, defense, natural resources and transportation systems, as well as small
business ", - said Nikolay Ivchenko. However, economists believe that this program
short and does not lead to serious economic reform.
In addition, its implementation requires a large number of laws
that in the Russian bureaucracy is very difficult. Also, experts skeptical
relate to the idea of ​​using the state reserves for consumer needs and support
the ruble, which has already spent more than $ 200 billion so that the impact of
Russian anti-crisis program under a big question. "The Russian economy is too
dependent on the price of oil and gas, it is uncompetitive. But harsh vertical
government does not give the economy to fall very rapidly ", - said Vitaly Shapran.
"If the U.S. and Western Europe have already reached the" bottom ", the Russian economy
come to this only in early 2010. And it will be painful and fraught
with large losses, both the economy and population ", - added
Alex Vegera. For example, the IMF expects unemployment in Russia by the end
2009 will reach 8, and 9%, and in 2010 will rise to 10, 1%. However, according to forecasts
The IMF, in 2010 the Russian economy can begin to recover and show
0, 5% of annual GDP growth. Russia more than other countries, influences
to Ukraine. First of all, because our northern neighbor, is our largest
trading partner - on a single account for 19% of Ukrainian exports
(Data for January-February 2009). It is because of reductions in consumption
Ukrainian goods to Russia and the EU Ukrainian exports fell seriously - with
about $ 10 billion a month last summer to $ 3 billion - in February 2009
Salvation for Ukraine will be the restoration of the Russian economy in 2010-2011
years. during which the demand for Ukrainian goods will gradually return to
previous level. "Trade with Russia, despite the opposition of the periodic
and trade wars will continue. Ukraine this familiarity will help
our products to the Russian consumer, who is willing to acquire in the future
inferior, but cheaper Ukrainian goods ", - said Vasily
Yurchishin. Ukraine + USA = RATE AND EXPORT homeland of world economic
crisis (namely the United States in 2007 began the first manifestation of the crisis) today
You can tell on the rise. In particular, it is expected that the first time since the end of 2007
, one of the key economic indicators - Gross domestic product
(GDP) - will slow down the pace of decline. "The maximum fall in GDP in the U.S. was
in the 4th quarter of 2008 - -6 3%. In the 1st quarter of this year, according to
experts, the fall of the American GDP is 5, 8% ", - told Mykola
Ivchenko. According to experts, it is expected that by the end of this year, U.S. GDP
show a positive trend. Moreover, unexpectedly showed profit
for the quarter troubled banks: Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan
Chase \u0026 Co. It is such positive news and the stock began to rise
U.S. market - in the March stock index again began to show growth. True,
we surveyed the experts do not recommend re-evaluate the situation. "Economics
U.S. showed mixed signals: the growth of sales of houses and at the same time increase
unemployment and falling industrial production, income or number of problem
banks amid growing share of problem loans. All of this suggests
the completion of the recession in the U.S. ", - said Alexander Shkurpat. USELESS,
BUT PERFORMANCE. Another argument in favor of the deteriorating situation in the U.S. -
low efficiency of anti-crisis measures of the U.S. government. Barack Obama's Plan
provides for allocation from the budget of about $ 900 billion to fight the massive
layoffs and bankruptcies, creation of 2 years and 4 million new jobs,
a series of tax breaks and subsidies. "But investing in social projects,
that stimulate consumer demand, it is still trying to fill
bottomless pit ", - says Nikolay Ivchenko. According to the expert, did not bring
the desired effect, and already implemented anti-crisis measures - selected
means in most cases, they've taken up and just about any promotion
production were not discussed. But, despite the failure of much of crisis management
activities, experts believe that America will come first from the crisis. The reason
for this view is the economic dominance of U.S. dollar's status and
as the world's main reserve currency, which will long continue to maintain
its exchange rate to major currencies at a decent level. Therefore, international analysts
argue that the rise in unemployment has slowed up the 2nd quarter
This year, the housing market will revive in the 2nd half, and from
the end of 2009 in the United States can begin even minimal, but the economic
growth. Expect that the flames of economic growth after the U.S. will spread
to Ukraine, it is not necessary. The direct impact of the current state of the U.S. economy in
We limited. The fact that the volume of trade between countries is very modest
- In January-February 2009 the U.S. accounted for only 0, 5% of total
Ukrainian exports (in 2008 - 2, 9%). "U.S. influence on the economy
Ukraine remotely, through demand for the metal ", - says Vitaly Shapran. That
Ukraine will have a positive stabilization of the U.S. economy, but having
orders for steel products from other countries, which tend to catch
economic growth. "Restoration of global trade depends in the first
part of U.S. economic recovery, a leader in global demand ", -
confirmed Nikolay Ivchenko. Definite influence on Ukraine and will stabilize
finsektora U.S. will lead to the emergence of trust among participants in the world
financial markets and our banks again will open opportunities to attract
money abroad. It is also important for Ukraine and the influence of the U.S. as a country
whose currency has the status of international means of payment. Any developments in the economy
and U.S. policies affect the rate of the dollar against other currencies, which immediately becomes
much to us. However, in recent years our National Bank fixed the dollar to
at 8, 0-8, 2 grn. / $, and intends to keep it in such a framework further. So
global currency fluctuations are recorded only on the euro: the positive
news from the U.S. and the negative of the EU immediately lowered the hryvnia rate / EUR, and
Conversely, bad news from the New World from the Old and good make Euro
the hryvnia more. UKRAINE: THE LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL The fact that today
is happening in Ukraine, - the calm before the storm, the second series. Having survived the first
round of crisis, Ukraine has faced a sharp decline in production,
outflow of capital (December-February it amounted to about $ 2 billion) and declining
balance of payments (negative balance amounted to over $ 4 billion). But
in March and April there was a lull. The population is no longer buying the currency was
less to make their money from banks (outflow of deposits of physical persons March
amounted to only 2% to 5, 1% - in February) and even started to buy houses
(Increased demand for inexpensive 1-2-bedroom apartment). However, to enjoy early.
"In the 3rd quarter is expected seasonal decline in business activity" - warns
Alexander Shkurpat. According to experts, this decline Ukrainian companies
conduct the next stage of optimization of costs, triggering the growth of unemployment
and real incomes. Despite the dismal forecast, the experts
expect that by the end of the year Ukrainian economy is once again demonstrate the positive
trends. This will take place against the backdrop of the international positive. "Sequence
out of the crisis will be like this. First, the U.S. - they are first entered
crisis and the first of it will come. Then - Europe. U.S. and EU generate demand
who begin to work on developing economies - China at first, but
then other countries in Asia and Latin America. Only after that Ukrainian
goods will win a niche, "- said Vasily Yurchishin. A more accurate
chronology as suggested by experts: the economy and financial sector in the U.S.
stabilized by the end of 2009, Europe - in the 1st half of 2010,
and Ukraine at the end of the year 2010-2011. Our experts: Alex Weger,
director of financial group "Consulting and investment," Alexander Shkurpat,
financial analyst of investment company Astrum Investment Management Dmitry
Moshkalo, Vice President, Foyil Asset Management Ukraine Vasyl Yurchishin,
director of economic programs Razumkov center Vitaly Shapran, Deputy Director
rating agency "Expert Rating", a member of the Ukrainian Society of Financial
Analysts Nikolay Ivchenko, head of information-analytical center
"Forex Club"

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